Quick answer

Token price after TGE usually comes under heavy pressure in the first 90 days. DWF Labs, drawing on Memento Research data on structured 2025 launches, reported that more than 80% traded below their TGE price within roughly 90 days, with typical drawdowns of 50% to 70%. The main driver is airdrop and early-investor unlock selling that hits an order book too thin to absorb it, not a lack of interest in the project.

That finding is uncomfortable for founders, but it is useful. It separates what a team can change before launch from what the market will do anyway, and it shows why liquidity planning belongs in the TGE plan rather than in the post-mortem.

What the Research Found

DWF Labs published the figures in commentary reported by Cointelegraph, based on Memento Research data covering hundreds of token launches across centralized and decentralized exchanges. Memecoins were excluded, so the dataset describes projects with real products or protocols behind them.

The pattern was consistent rather than random: most tokens peaked within the first month and then trended down as selling pressure built. DWF Labs pointed to airdrops and early-investor unlocks as the main sources of that pressure.

Why Token Price Falls After Launch

The selling usually does not come from people who lost faith in the product. It comes from airdrop recipients and early backers who were never planning to hold for years. A token can have an engaged community and a working product and still absorb a wave of supply from holders whose plan was always to sell at the first liquid moment.

That supply arrives on a schedule the project itself wrote. Cliffs, airdrop claim windows and investor unlocks all decide when tokens become sellable, which is why the shape of the unlock calendar matters as much as the size of it. Our token launch strategy guide covers how to plan the launch calendar around them.

Hour One vs Day 90

The first hours after TGE are the most fragile part of a token's price history. Organic volume has not built up, the order book is thinner than it will ever be again, and whatever unlock or airdrop flow is in motion starts hitting that book immediately. A sell order that would barely move a mature market can move a launch-day market a long way, and a visible early drop tends to pull other holders into selling too.

By day 90, a token that had active market making from the first trade usually looks different: tighter spreads, a deeper book that absorbs unlock selling without sudden air pockets, and a market that functions even if the price sits below TGE. For a picture of the opposite case, see what happens to a token with no market maker.

What Projects Can Control Before TGE

Three things are within a project's control going into TGE, and all three have to be decided before the first trade.

Unlock and airdrop structure

A cliff-and-vest schedule concentrated right at TGE creates more concentrated selling than a schedule with a gentler ramp. Staggering claim windows and investor unlocks spreads the same supply over more trading days and more liquidity.

Liquidity from the first block

A market maker in place before launch, with inventory and quoting rules agreed in advance, is the difference between absorbing early selling and getting run over by it. The pre-TGE capital and inventory checklist covers what to have ready.

Exchange sequencing

Venue choice decides how much depth is realistic on day one. Our comparison of Tier 1 vs Tier 2 exchanges explains how listing order affects launch liquidity.

What Market Making Changes and What It Does Not

EasyMM provides CEX market making from TGE onward, standing in the order book on the exchanges where a token lists and absorbing unlock and airdrop flow without letting the book go thin. Through Pre-TGE support, that work can start before launch, alongside tokenomics and exchange planning.

Market making does not override the market. It cannot stop a token from trading below its TGE price if broader unlock pressure and market conditions take it there, and no market maker can honestly promise otherwise. What it changes is how the repricing happens: through a market with real depth instead of a series of gaps.

Conclusion

Token price after TGE is shaped mostly by supply the project scheduled itself and by how much standing liquidity exists to meet it. The research says most structured launches will trade below their opening price within 90 days, so the realistic goal is an orderly, liquid market rather than a promise that the chart only goes up. Plan unlocks, liquidity and venues together, and keep the post-listing liquidity playbook close for the weeks after launch.

Launching soon and want liquidity in place before the first trade? Book a strategy session with EasyMM and get a market maker on your order book before TGE, not after the first bad day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do most tokens fall below their TGE price?

DWF Labs research points to airdrop recipients and early-investor unlocks as the main source of selling after launch. That supply meets a young order book with little organic volume, so prices fall faster than demand alone would suggest.

Does a market maker prevent a token's price from falling after TGE?

No. A market maker cannot create demand or cancel a genuine wave of unlock selling. Active market making keeps the book deep enough that price moves reflect real supply and demand instead of a thin book amplifying every order.

When should a project start market making, before TGE or after?

Before, if at all possible. The first hours after TGE are when the book is thinnest and unlock or airdrop selling tends to hit hardest, so having a market maker in place means depth exists from the first trade.

Is the 80% figure specific to a particular type of token?

Yes. The dataset excluded memecoins and focused on structured launches tied to real products or protocols, so it describes that group rather than the wider and usually more volatile memecoin market.

What can a team change in the first 90 days after launch?

It can keep liquidity steady on every venue, watch spread and depth against exchange review rules, and communicate unlocks clearly before they happen. It cannot change the unlock schedule it already published, which is why that design work belongs before TGE.